MA. International Relation at Somali National University in Mogadishu-Somalia,
Yahye Ilyas Bashir
Abstract
The Horn of Africa plays an important role in global geopolitics because of its proximity to major maritime routes and its importance in regional and international security dynamics. This study studies the Horn's foreign policy landscape, concentrating on the diplomatic strategies, regional alliances, and international initiatives that shape its current political climate. The 2024 Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland is key to the debate, as it allowed Ethiopia access to the Red Sea while increasing tensions with Somalia. The investigation delves deeper into how nations like Egypt and Turkey have positioned themselves within the region's complicated web of ties, frequently exacerbating existing conflicts or offering diplomatic mediation.
The report underscores the limitations of regional groups like IGAD in conflict resolution, as well as the competing interests of global powers like the United States and China. These actors have increased their presence in the Horn, motivated by concerns ranging from maritime security to counterterrorism. Finally, the report contends that long-term regional stability necessitates inclusive dialogue, respect for national sovereignty, and stronger institutions for regional collaboration.
This article presents a sophisticated view of how internal and external influences shape diplomacy in the Horn of Africa by assessing foreign policy acts in historical, strategic, and geopolitical settings. The information presented here is designed to help policymakers, scholars, and stakeholders interested in the region's peace, development, and strategic relevance.
1.0 Introduction
One of the most important areas of East Africa is the Horn of Africa, which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland. It has drawn a lot of attention from around the world due to its advantageous location along the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which are crucial maritime chokepoints for international trade and energy transit.
The intricate interactions of sovereignty conflicts, economic ambitions, and security concerns define the foreign policy environment of the region.
The Horn of Africa, which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland, is one of the world's most strategically significant but politically volatile regions. Located on vital maritime routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, this region has long attracted global powers seeking influence and access to its ports, resources, and security alliances. Foreign policy in the Horn of Africa is influenced not only by domestic issues such as state fragility, border conflicts, and ethnic differences, but also by the geopolitical goals of regional and international actors.
In recent years, the Horn's foreign policy dynamics have grown more complex.
The 2024 maritime access agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Egypt's military presence in Somalia, and Turkey's diplomatic interventions are just a few examples of how regional foreign policy decisions are inextricably linked to issues of sovereignty, national identity, and strategic competition. These developments raise significant questions: How do states in the Horn of Africa negotiate international relations while protecting their national interests? What role do regional organizations and global powers play in reducing or increasing tensions?
This study investigates the changing foreign policy landscape in the Horn of Africa, with a special emphasis on how countries in the region interact with one another and with outside forces. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strategic motivations driving foreign policy choices in the Horn by analyzing key diplomatic agreements, regional rivalries, and international alignments—as well as the broader implications for peace, security, and development in East Africa and elsewhere.
2.0 Ethiopia's Quest for Maritime
Access
Ethiopia, which has been landlocked since Eritrea became independent in 1993, has long desired direct access to the sea in order to advance its economic growth. After the 2018 peace agreement with Eritrea, which put an end to 20 years of conflict but left the issue of port access unresolved, this desire gained momentum. In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that recognized Somaliland's independence in exchange for Ethiopia gaining access to a 19-kilometer stretch of the Red Sea coastline. Tensions with Somalia, which views Somaliland as an essential component of its territory, increased as a result of Ethiopia becoming the first UN member state to provide such recognition.
3.0 Somalia's Sovereignty Concerns and Regional Alliances
Somalia strongly rejected the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU, regarding it as a direct threat to its sovereignty. In reaction, Somalia expelled Ethiopian officials and established diplomatic relations with Egypt and Turkey. Egypt, which is concerned about Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Blue Nile, sent military help to Somalia, further hurting relations with Ethiopia. Concurrently, Turkey, seeking to enhance its regional influence, supported discussions between Ethiopia and Somalia, which resulted in the Ankara Declaration in December 2024. This accord underlined Somalia's territorial integrity and aimed to reduce tensions.
4.0 The Role of Regional Organizations
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional organization of eight East African countries, voiced significant worry about the deterioration of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia. In January 2024, the IGAD held an emergency meeting to address the crisis, reiterating the values of sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, the organization's efforts have had minimal success in settling the dispute, demonstrating the difficulties that regional institutions confront when dealing with intra-state conflicts.
5.0 The Strategic Interests of External Powers
The Horn of Africa's geopolitical prominence has drew the attention of external countries. The United States has closely observed the situation, concerned about the potential for regional destabilization and the impact on counterterrorism efforts against groups such as al-Shabaab. The United States has voiced concern that the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU may distract focus and resources away from tackling terrorism. China, through its Belt and Road Initiative, has expressed interest in the region's infrastructure development, especially port facilities. China's engagement, albeit mostly economic, complicates the Horn of Africa's foreign policy dynamics.
6.0 Prospects for Regional Stability
The adoption of the Ankara Declaration by Ethiopia and Somalia marks an important step toward regional stability. However, the fundamental concerns, such as Somaliland's status and Ethiopia's access to marine routes, have yet to be resolved. While external powers provide possibilities for mediation, they also introduce competing interests, which may hinder the route to long-term peace.
To ensure long-term peace, regional actors must engage in inclusive debate, respecting each nation's sovereignty while tackling shared economic and security concerns. Strengthening regional institutions such as IGAD and encouraging cooperation among surrounding nations will be critical to reducing tensions and promoting a coherent foreign policy strategy in the Horn of Africa.
7.0 References
1. Ethiopia–Somaliland memorandum of understanding. Wikipedia, 2024.
2. Fresh Egypt arms shipment to Somalia raises regional tensions. The Guardian, 2024.
3. Ethiopia and Somalia hold a first round of technical talks in Turkey toward resolving their dispute. AP News, 2025.
4. Ankara Declaration. Wikipedia, 2024.
5. Tensions in the Horn of Africa - House of Lords Library. UK Parliament, 2024.
6. How Turkey's diplomacy in the Horn of Africa challenges Egypt. The New Arab, 2024.
7. Geopolitical Rivalries in the Horn of Africa.The Elephant, 2024.
8. Regional Power Dynamics in the Horn of Africa: Emerging Axes of Influence. Orion Policy Institute, 2024.
9. Türkiye’s Peace Diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. SETA, 2024.
10. The Changing Security Landscape in the Horn of Africa: Impact of Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics on Geopolitics. East African Review, 2024.
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